Investment strategy

Artificial intelligence may transform the economy without rewarding everyone who finances it. As investment surges and expectations rise, the question is who will capture the economic value. History suggests the greatest beneficiaries may be companies that use AI rather than those building its infrastructure. We examine where durable profits may emerge, what markets have already priced in, and the hidden concentration risks facing investors.

AI is becoming critical economic infrastructure, changing how businesses compete and how governments think about resilience, sovereignty and strategic control. As access to advanced models broadens, advantage may increasingly depend on deployment, data, governance and execution rather than model ownership alone. For investors, value may accrue to the infrastructure and systems through which intelligence is created, trusted and controlled.

AI may matter less because of what machines can do than because of how humans adapt to them. Drawing on a Gresham College lecture series, this article examines AI as cognitive infrastructure: changing how people learn, analyse, decide and exercise judgement. It explores productive friction, the difference between performance and understanding, and why governance and accountability may become more valuable as AI systems become more capable.